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One Moment, Please… History Repeats Itself for Auto Industry

October 21, 2024 by Commentary Submissions Leave a Comment

By Jason Sethre

Publisher

Fillmore County Journal 

jason@fillmorecountyjournal.com

It’s been 50 years since the oil embargo of 1973, that carried on into 1974.

“During the Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation of the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-war peace negotiations,” quoted from https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo

This situation forced the U.S. to focus on the issue of dependency on foreign oil, which sparked a robust conversation about the development of domestic energy sources.

This coincided with the end of the muscle car era, a gas guzzling good time.  The U.S. started to see V8 engines downgraded in horsepower, with six and four cylinder vehicles becoming more popular.  The emphasis on MPG (miles per gallon) became a part of our lexicon.

It seems like right now history is repeating itself, but in a different way – exactly 50 years later.

We just went through another muscle car era that reintroduced car styling from the late ‘60s and early ‘70s, with a distinct retro design along with continuously increasing horsepower and performance benchmarks.  The Dodge Challenger and Dodge Charger V8 Hemi engine has been retired as of 2023.  The Chevrolet Camaro.  Done.  The Ford Mustang is still producing an ICE (internal combustion engine), but has tested the waters with an EV (electric vehicle) version.  Essentially, the muscle car era sequel is over.

With government mandates on vehicle manufacturers, the U.S. is moving in the direction of EVs, but not without consumer resistance and technology setbacks.

Tesla owns 70% of the EV market.  Elon Musk must be doing something right, as he has established a cult following.

They’ve become quite popular down south and on the west coast, where the climates are warmer than Minnesota year round.

I’ve read quite a few articles on this subject, and there’s fresh content and research made available on a daily basis.  Just like anything in the 24-hour news cycle, this is an evolving and ever-changing story.

The EV craze has brought a lot of players to the table.  Sure, the big three, GM, Chrysler (now Stellantis), and Ford, have all throttled the market with EV brands.  But, there have been a lot of startups, too.  Just like any situation in which there is a battle for market share, there will be winners and losers.

In recent months, Stellantis, the maker of Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, and Ram vehicles, laid off more than 1,000 Detroit workers in Warren, Mich., with plans of laying off 2,450 plant workers indefinitely.  This comes after the departure of the popular Hemi V8 engine and introduction of EV hopefuls like the Dodge Hornet.  Their customer base doesn’t seem to be flocking to the dealer lots for EVs.

A few years ago, while attending a Twins game with my family, I saw a car I had never seen before.  I looked it up on the Internet and found out it was a Fisker Karma.  If you haven’t heard of Fisker, no worries.  I hadn’t either.  They started production in 2007 and just filed bankruptcy in 2024.  They’re done.  And they left behind a mess at their headquarters in Manhattan Beach, Calif.  According to a story published TechCrunch.com, Fisker left behind drums of hazardous waste and manufacturing equipment, which will cost the landlord of the property tens of thousands of dollars to clean up.

The part that caught my attention in this article was the “hazardous waste.”  What do we know about the batteries?

Speaking as a firefighter, we’ve had some training on hybrids and EVs.  The biggest concern with these vehicles is the possibility that the battery will explode.  We know they have to be handled differently than the majority of ICE vehicles on the road.  

And, then what happens to the batteries after they’ve exhausted their lifecycle?  How do they handle the extremes of hot and cold temperatures?  I think there are still a lot of unknowns, but that’s often the case with any new technology.  The trial of longevity and aftermath is done in the mass market, and only time will tell.

What we are seeing, though, is a slow down and even decrease in EV sales, primarily due to pricing.  Teslas costing between $75,000 and $125,000, is not a middle class vehicle option. 

However, there has been an increase in hybrid sales (HEVs), showing gains of 30.7% year over year when comparing 2024 to 2023, thus far, according to https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/. 

But wait, there’s more.

What about hydrogen?  German automaker BMW is in talks with Toyota to produce hydrogen-powered BMW vehicles.

So, where are all of these vehicles going to be serviced?  You will be hard pressed to find a lot of local small town repair shops having equipment or experience with EVs, hybrids, or hydrogen.  The investment in technology and training will be a major obstacle.

There’s a lot happening in the auto industry right now.

The question is always how will the market respond.

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